Investment-Specific Technological Change and Asset Prices

Abstract:     
This paper provides evidence that investment-specific technological change is a source of systematic risk. In contrast to neutral productivity shocks, the economy needs to invest to realize the benefits of innovations in investment technology. A positive shock to investment technology is followed by a reallocation of resources from consumption to investment, leading to a negative price of risk. A portfolio of stocks that produce investment goods minus stocks that produce consumption goods (IMC) proxies for the shock and is a priced risk factor. The value of assets in place minus growth opportunities falls after positive shocks to investment technology, which suggests an explanation for the value puzzle. I formalize these insights in a dynamic general equilibrium model with two sectors of production. The model's implications are supported by the data. The IMC portfolio earns a negative premium, predicts investment and consumption in a manner consistent with the theory, and helps price the value cross section.

Keywords: investment-specifc shocks, general equilibrium, asset pricing, cross-sectional tests, real investment opportunity set

JEL Classifications: G12, G11, G10, E22

Working Paper Series