Disaster Planning for Pandemic Flu: An Assessment of the Potential Effects of an Influenza Pandemic on Local Community Health Care Resources

Abstract:     
The eventuality of another influenza pandemic and the recent concern over H5N1, avian flu, require an assessment of local community healthcare capabilities. As the federal government has recently stated that such local communities will be primarily responsible for public health planning and implementation during a severe pandemic, an assessment of the current capabilities in these communities and planning for deficiencies must commence immediately. In this article, we have assessed the impact and capabilities of a model local county community in suburban Maryland. Our two statistical models demonstrate the likely impact of a mild, 1968 Hong Kong Flu pandemic in comparison to a severe, 1918 Spanish Flu type pandemic respectively. Both of these statistical models reveal significant resource deficiencies that many local communities may face. Additionally, we discuss some negative consequences that pandemic policy implementation itself may have on local communities and healthcare systems. Some recommendations for pandemic planning are suggested.

Keywords: Pandemic, Avian Flu, 1918, Policy, Model, H5N1

Working Paper Series