The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data
Charles Yuji Horioka
Osaka University - Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Osaka University - Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP)
November 18, 2006
ISER Discussion Paper No. 676
In this paper, we conduct a dynamic panel analysis of the determinants of the household saving rate in China using a life cycle model and panel data on Chinese provinces for the 1995-2004 period from China's household survey. We find that China's household saving rate has been high and rising and that the main determinants of variations over time and over space therein are the lagged saving rate, the income growth rate, and (in some cases) the real interest rate and the inflation rate. However, we find that the variables relating to the age structure of the population usually do not have a significant impact on the household saving rate. These results provide mixed support for the life cycle hypothesis, are consistent with the existence of inertia or persistence, and imply that China's household saving rate will remain high for some time to come.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 29
Keywords: Age Structure, China, Chinese Economy, Demographics, Dependency Ratio, Habit Formation, Household Saving, Household Saving Rate, Household, Inertia, Life Cycle Hypothesis, Life Cycle Model, Persistence, Saving, and Saving Rate
JEL Classification: D12, D91, E21, J10working papers series
Date posted: December 1, 2006
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