Implications of ERM2 for Poland's Monetary Policy

Abstract:     
We propose an extension to the inflation targeting regime currently pursued by Poland. It incorporates the exchange rate stability constraints as imposed by the obligatory participation in the ERM2 that Poland needs to satisfy prior to adopting the euro. The modified policy is based on the forward-looking inflation targeting supplemented with the exchange rate stability objective. Its effective implementation depends on the determined long-term equilibrium exchange rate and the observed degree of exchange rate volatility. Both are empirically estimated by employing the Johansen cointegration tests and the threshold generalized autoregressive heteroscedasticity model with the in-mean extension and generalized error distribution (TGARCH-M-GED).

Keywords: Inflation targeting, Monetary convergence, ERM2, Euro, Poland, Cointegration, GARCH

JEL Classification: E58, E61, F33, P24

Accepted Paper Series