Do Large Hedgers and Speculators React to Events? A Stability and Events Analysis

Abstract:     
Using CFTC's COT data, this letter analysed whether large hedgers and large speculators were influenced by major economic events of the 1990s. 8 major economics events are looked at over 10 year period, and findings support that these informed players were hardly affected by major events. The trading determinant model, mean equation model and, risk and return relationship model suggested the behaviour and performance of these key market players were stable, and any significant structural break were short lived. The use of standard deviation as a measure of risk captured more breaks in the risk and return relationship model, due to its higher sensitiveness to futures prices in the 29 U.S. futures markets.

Keywords: standard deviation, structural break, Futures

JEL Classifications: G14, G15, G18

Accepted Paper Series