How Does Terrorism Risk Vary Across Space and Time? An Analysis Based on the Israeli Experience
RAND Corporation; Hebrew University - The Federmann School of Public Policy and Government; University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of Economics; Princeton University - Department of Economics; RAND Corporation - Labor and Population Studies
RAND Corporation; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
We study the spatial and temporal determinants of terrorism risk in Israel, using a geocoded database of Israeli terrorist attacks from 1949 to the present. In selecting targets, terrorists seem to respond rationally to costs and benefits: they are more likely to hit targets more accessible from their own homebases and international borders, closer to symbolic centers of government administration, and in more heavily Jewish areas. We also examine the waiting time between attacks experienced by localities. Long periods without an attack signal lower risk for most localities, but higher risk for important areas like regional or national capitals.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 36
Keywords: Terrorism Risk, spatial, temporal, Israel, Palestinian
JEL Classification: D74, N4
Date posted: February 21, 2007
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