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Calibration Trumps Confidence as a Basis for Witness CredibilityElizabeth R. TenneyUniversity of Virginia - Psychology Robert MacCounUniversity of California, Berkeley - School of Law; University of California, Berkeley - Jurisprudence and Social Policy Program; University of California, Berkeley - The Richard & Rhoda Goldman School of Public Policy Barbara A. SpellmanUniversity of Virginia School of Law Reid HastieUniversity of Chicago - Booth School of Business Psychological Science, Vol. 18, No. 1, p. 46, 2007 Abstract: In the courtroom and in laboratory studies, confident witnesses are viewed as more credible, and thus have more influence on judgments and verdicts, than unconfident witnesses. In two experiments (with college student subjects) we demonstrate that erroneous testimony may damage the credibility of a high-confidence witness more than a low-confidence one. We show that listeners rely on a source's calibration - whether the source's confidence is appropriate to the level of knowledge - rather than confidence when evaluating testimony.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 5 Keywords: evidence, juries JEL Classification: K4, K41 Accepted Paper SeriesDate posted: April 9, 2007Suggested CitationContact Information
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