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Statement on Prediction MarketsKenneth J. ArrowStanford University - Department of Economics Shyam SunderYale University - School of Management Robert ForsytheUniversity of South Florida - College of Business Robert E. LitanEwing Marion Kauffman Foundation; AEI-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies Eric ZitzewitzDartmouth College; NBER Michael GorhamIllinois Institute of Technology Robert W. HahnUniversity of Oxford, Smith School; Georgetown University Robin HansonGeorge Mason University; Oxford University - Future of Humanity Institute Daniel KahnemanPrinceton University John O. LedyardCalifornia Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences Saul LevmoreUniversity of Chicago Law School Paul R. MilgromStanford University Forrest D. NelsonUniversity of Iowa - Henry B. Tippie College of Business - Department of Economics George R. NeumannUniversity of Iowa - Henry B. Tippie College of Business - Department of Economics Marco OttavianiNorthwestern University - Kellogg School of Management Charles R. PlottCalifornia Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences Thomas C. SchellingUniversity of Maryland Robert J. ShillerYale University - Cowles Foundation; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Yale University - International Center for Finance Vernon L. SmithChapman University - Economic Science Institute; Chapman University School of Law Erik C. SnowbergStanford Graduate School of Business Cass R. SunsteinHarvard Law School Paul C. TetlockColumbia Business School - Finance and Economics Philip E. TetlockUniversity of California, Berkeley - Organizational Behavior & Industrial Relations Group; University of Pennsylvania - Management Department Hal R. VarianUniversity of California, Berkeley - School of Information; University of California, Berkeley - Operations and Information Technology Management Group; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Justin WolfersUniversity of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics; The Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan; The Brookings Institution; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Kiel Institute for the World Economy May 2007 AEI-Brookings Joint Center Related Publication No. 07-11 Abstract: Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public sectors. We argue that U.S. regulators should lower barriers to the creation and design of prediction markets by creating a safe harbor for certain types of small stakes markets. We believe our proposed change has the potential to stimulate innovation in the design and use of prediction markets throughout the economy, and in the process to provide information that will benefit the private sector and government alike.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 8 Keywords: prediction markets, public policy, forecasting, regulation JEL Classification: D61, D70 working papers seriesDate posted: May 7, 2007Suggested CitationContact Information
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