Historic Turning Points in Real Estate
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Yale University - International Center for Finance
Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1610
This paper looks for markers of ends of real estate booms or busts. The changes in market psychology and related indicators that occurred at real estate market turning points in the United States since the 1980s are compared with changes at turning points in the more distant past. In all these episodes changes in an atmosphere of optimism about the future course of home prices, changes in public interpretation of the boom, as well as evidence of supply response to the high prices of a boom, are noted.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 29
Keywords: Home prices, Boom, Bubble, Regime change, Stock market, California, Florida
JEL Classification: R31working papers series
Date posted: June 4, 2007 ; Last revised: October 28, 2007
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