Financial Constraints and Inflated Home Prices During the Real-Estate Boom

Abstract:     
During the housing boom, financially constrained home buyers artificially inflated transaction prices in order to draw larger mortgages. Using transaction data from Illinois that includes sellers' offers to inflate prices, I estimate that in 2005-2008, up to 16% of highly-leveraged transactions had inflated prices of up to 9%. Inflated transactions were common in low-income neighborhoods and when intermediaries had a greater stake or an informational advantage. Borrowers who inflated prices were more likely to default, but their mortgage rates were not materially higher. Property prices in areas with a high rate of past price inflation exhibited momentum and high volatility.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 48

Keywords: Manipulation, Fraud, Moral Hazard, Agency Costs,Delegated Monitoring, Mortgage, Collateral, Appraisal, Valuation, Debt, Bank, Financial Intermediation, Cheating, Mortgage, Subprime, Lending, Capital Market, Real-Estate, Forensic Economics, Overpaying, Fannie Mae, Loan buyers, Borrower, Lender

JEL Classification: D12, G21, L85

Accepted Paper Series