Will « Healthy Ageing » Save the French Medical Public Insurance System?

Posted: 12 Jun 2007

See all articles by Sophie Thiébaut

Sophie Thiébaut

INSERM, Unit 379; GREQAM

Bruno Ventelou

University of Angers - Research Group in Quantitative Saving (GREQAM); University of Angers - French Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)

Date Written: April 2007

Abstract

We evaluate the impact of progresses in population health for the future of national healthcare expenditures, using a microsimulation model of health services consumption behaviour applied to a representative database of the French population (ESPS from IRDES). The model integrates individual health states through which we "artificially" move each agent of the database (creating an epidemiological dynamics). To simulate future individual health trajectory, we use health state transition matrix that contains transition probability from one health state to another. Using a health demand model, we deduce by summation the French healthcare spending in 2025 for three epidemiological scenarios: Benchmark case (current epidemiological dynamics), Healthy aging and Healthy aging + Medical progress. The difference of estimates between the two first scenarios is low: in spite of the improvement of the general health state of the population, expenditures are not completely postponed and 'healthy ageing' does not compensate for the increase in the number of old people. Last, if death rates decrease with medical progress, the "stock" of sick people increases and the "healthy ageing" hypothesis counterbalance even less the upsurge of healthcare consumption.

Keywords: health, health policy, simulation method, econometrics, social security, planning Models

JEL Classification: I100, I180, C150, C210, H550, O210

Suggested Citation

Thiébaut, Sophie and Ventelou, Bruno, Will « Healthy Ageing » Save the French Medical Public Insurance System? (April 2007). iHEA 2007 6th World Congress: Explorations in Health Economics Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=993097 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.993097

Sophie Thiébaut (Contact Author)

INSERM, Unit 379 ( email )

101 rue de Tolbiac
75654 Paris Cedex 13
France
04.91.59.89.16. (Phone)

GREQAM ( email )

Centre de la Vieille Charité
2, rue de la Charité
Marseille, 13002
France

Bruno Ventelou

University of Angers - Research Group in Quantitative Saving (GREQAM) ( email )

Centre de la Vieille Charité
2, rue de la Charité
Marseille, 13002
France

University of Angers - French Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM) ( email )

101 rue de Tolbiac
75654 Paris Cedex 13
France

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
672
PlumX Metrics