Will « Healthy Ageing » Save the French Medical Public Insurance System?
Posted: 12 Jun 2007
Date Written: April 2007
Abstract
We evaluate the impact of progresses in population health for the future of national healthcare expenditures, using a microsimulation model of health services consumption behaviour applied to a representative database of the French population (ESPS from IRDES). The model integrates individual health states through which we "artificially" move each agent of the database (creating an epidemiological dynamics). To simulate future individual health trajectory, we use health state transition matrix that contains transition probability from one health state to another. Using a health demand model, we deduce by summation the French healthcare spending in 2025 for three epidemiological scenarios: Benchmark case (current epidemiological dynamics), Healthy aging and Healthy aging + Medical progress. The difference of estimates between the two first scenarios is low: in spite of the improvement of the general health state of the population, expenditures are not completely postponed and 'healthy ageing' does not compensate for the increase in the number of old people. Last, if death rates decrease with medical progress, the "stock" of sick people increases and the "healthy ageing" hypothesis counterbalance even less the upsurge of healthcare consumption.
Keywords: health, health policy, simulation method, econometrics, social security, planning Models
JEL Classification: I100, I180, C150, C210, H550, O210
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation