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Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations

Robert W. Fogel

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

June 2007

NBER Working Paper No. w13184

While the economies of the fifteen countries that were in the European Union (EU15) in 2000 will continue to grow from now until 2040, they will not be able to match the surges in growth that will occur in South and East Asia. In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the output of the entire globe in the year 2000, despite the influence of several potential political and economic constraints. India's economy will also continue to grow, although significant constraints (both political and economic) will keep it from reaching China's levels. The projected decline of the EU15's global share of GDP means that liberal Asian nations will be poised to take up the role of promoting liberal democracy across the globe.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 23

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Date posted: June 27, 2007  

Suggested Citation

Fogel , Robert W., Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations (June 2007). NBER Working Paper No. w13184. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=994232

Contact Information

Robert W. Fogel (Contact Author)
University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )
1101 East 58th Street
Center for Population Economics
Chicago, IL 60637
United States
773-702-7709 (Phone)
773-702-2901 (Fax)
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
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