Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=995830
 
 

Citations (9)



 


 



Climate Change, Mortality and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the U.S.


Olivier Deschenes


University of California, Santa Barbara - College of Letters & Science - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Michael Greenstone


Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

June 21, 2007

MIT Department of Economics Working Paper No. 07-19

Abstract:     
This paper produces the first large-scale estimates of the US health related welfare costs due to climate change. The full welfare impact will be reflected in health outcomes and increased consumption of goods that preserve individuals' health. Using the presumably random year-to-year variation in temperature and two state of the art climate models, the analysis suggests that under a 'business as usual' scenario climate change will lead to an increase in the overall US annual mortality rate of approximately 2% at the end of the 21st century. Among different age groups, the estimated mortality increases are largest for infants. Individuals are likely to respond to higher temperatures by increasing air conditioning usage; the analysis suggests that climate change will lead to increases in annual residential energy consumption of up to 32% by the end of the century. Overall, the estimates suggest that the present discounted value of willingness to pay to avoid the climate change induced mortality and energy impacts predicted to occur over the remainder of the 21st century is about $900 billion (2006$) or 6.8% of 2006 GDP. This estimate of willingness to pay is statistically insignificant and is likely to overstate the long-run costs of climate change on these outcomes, because climate change will unfold gradually and individuals can engage in a wider set of adaptations that will mitigate costs in the longer run.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 57

Keywords: health costs of climate change, mortality due to hot and cold temperatures, adaptation to climate change, impact of climate change on energy demand, forward displacement of fatalities, health production functions

JEL Classification: I10, I12, I18, Q41, Q51, Q54, H4

working papers series


Download This Paper

Date posted: June 25, 2007 ; Last revised: November 30, 2013

Suggested Citation

Deschenes, Olivier and Greenstone, Michael, Climate Change, Mortality and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the U.S. (June 21, 2007). MIT Department of Economics Working Paper No. 07-19. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=995830 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.995830

Contact Information

Olivier Deschenes
University of California, Santa Barbara - College of Letters & Science - Department of Economics ( email )
Santa Barbara, CA 93106
United States
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) ( email )
P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany
Michael Greenstone (Contact Author)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics ( email )
50 Memorial Drive
E52-391
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Feedback to SSRN


Paper statistics
Abstract Views: 3,713
Downloads: 986
Download Rank: 10,917
Citations:  9

© 2014 Social Science Electronic Publishing, Inc. All Rights Reserved.  FAQ   Terms of Use   Privacy Policy   Copyright   Contact Us
This page was processed by apollo8 in 0.391 seconds