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Statistics in the Jury Box: How Juror Respond to Mitochondial DNA Probabilities
David H. Kaye The Pennsylvania State University Dickinson School of Law Valerie P. Hans Cornell Law School B. Michael Dann Independent Erin Farley University of Delaware Stephanie Albertson University of Delaware Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 1st Annual Conference on Empirical Legal Studies Paper Abstract: This article describes parts of an unusually realistic experiment on the comprehension of expert testimony on mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequencing in a criminal trial for robbery. Specifically, we examine how jurors who responded to summonses for jury duty evaluated portions of videotaped testimony involving probabilities and statistics. Although some jurors showed susceptibility to classic fallacies in interpreting conditional probabilities, the jurors as a whole were not overwhelmed by a 99.98% exclusion probability that the prosecution presented. Cognitive errors favoring the defense were more prevalent than ones favoring the prosecution. These findings lend scant support to the legal argument that mtDNA evidence (with modest exclusion probabilities) should be excluded because jurors are prone to overvalue such evidence. The article also introduces a new method for inferring the perceived probability of guilt that satisfies the burden of persuasion for most jurors.
Keywords: jury, DNA, scientific evidence, probability fallacies Accepted Paper SeriesDate posted: June 26, 2007 ; Last revised: June 26, 2007Suggested CitationContact Information
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