Formal and Informal Risk Sharing in LDCs: Theory and Empirical Evidence
University of Toulouse 1 - Toulouse School of Economics (TSE)
University of Toulouse 1 - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Mathématique et Quantitative (GREMAQ); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)
University of Toulouse 1 - Industrial Economic Institute (IDEI); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); University of Toulouse 1 - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Mathématique et Quantitative (GREMAQ); University of Montreal - Center for Interuniversity Research in Econometrics
CEPR Discussion Paper No. 6060
We develop and estimate a model of dynamic interactions where commitment is limited and contracts are incomplete to explain the patterns of income and consumption growth in village economies of less developed countries. Households can insure through both formal contracts and informal agreements, that is, agreements specifying voluntary transfers that need to be self-enforceable. This theoretical setting nests the case of complete markets and the case where only informal agreements are available. We derive a system of non-linear equations for income and consumption growth. A key prediction of our model is that both variables are affected by lagged consumption as a consequence of the interplay of formal and informal contracting possibilities. In a semi-parametric setting, we prove identification, derive testable restrictions and estimate the model with the use of data from Pakistan villages. Empirical results are consistent with the economic arguments. Incentive constraints due to self-enforcement bind with positive probability and formal contracts are used to reduce this probability.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 49
Keywords: Contracts, Incomplete Markets, Informal Transfers, Risk sharing
JEL Classification: C14, D13, D91, L14, O12working papers series
Date posted: June 28, 2007
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