MAUDE TOUSSAINT-COMEAU, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Email: maude.toussaint@chi.frb.org

Previous study by Card and Lewis (2005) has found (puzzling) that inflows of Mexican immigrants into new metropolitan areas have had no effect on the relative wages of very low-skill (high school dropouts). Rather, Mexican workers do affect relative wages for high school graduates. Whereas Card and Lewis' study uses variations across geographies, this paper considers variations across occupations. Recognizing that Mexican immigrants are highly occupationally clustered (disproportionately work in distinctive very low wage occupations), we use this fact to motivate the empirical approach to analyze the relationship between the composition of Mexican immigrants across occupations/industries and average wages in the occupations/industries. To summarize our finding, we confirm that in spite of the fact that Mexican immigrants are disproportionately in very low skill occupations, (which we define as occupations where the average workers have no high school education), we find no significant impact of Mexican immigrants on wages in those occupations. By contrast, inflows of Mexican immigrants have some small effects on the wages of native workers in low skill occupations (which we define as occupations where the average worker has at least some high school education or is a high school graduate). These results suggest potential spill over effects as natives may be reallocating their labor supply into non-predominant Mexican occupations. An analysis of employment changes of natives into different occupation groupings in response to an inflow of Mexican immigrants, confirms that natives' employment in occupations where the average worker has a high school education increases in response to Mexican inflows in the U.S labor force from previous periods.

BRANKO MILANOVIC, World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Email: bmilanovic@worldbank.org

Suppose that all people in the world are allocated only two characteristics: country where they live and income class within that country. Assume further that there is no migration. This paper shows that 90 percent of variability in people's global income position (percentile in world income distribution) is explained by only these two pieces of information. Mean country income (circumstance) explains 60 percent, and income class (both circumstance and effort) 30 percent of global income position. The author finds that about two-thirds of the latter number is due to circumstance (approximated by the estimated parental income class under various social mobility assumptions), which makes the overall share of circumstance unlikely to be less than 75-80 percent. On average, drawing one-notch higher income class (on a twenty-class scale) is equivalent to living in a 12 percent richer country. Once people are allocated their income class, it becomes important, not only whether the country they are allocated to is rich or poor, but whether it is egalitarian or not. This is particularly important for the people who draw low or high classes; for the middle classes, the country's income distribution is much less important than mean country income.

GUY STECKLOV, Affiliation Unknown
CALOGERO CARLETTO, World Bank
Email: gcarletto@worldbank.org
CARLO AZZARRI, Affiliation Unknown
BENJAMIN DAVIS, United Nations - Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
Email: benjamin.davis@fao.org

This paper examines the causes and dynamics of the shift in the gender composition of migration, and more particularly, in the access of women to migration opportunities and decision making. The context of the analysis is Albania, a natural laboratory for studying migration developments given that out-migration was practically eliminated from the end of World War II to the end of the 1980s. The authors use micro-level data from the Albania 2005 Living Standards Measurement Study including migration histories for family members since migration began. Based on discrete-time hazard models, the analysis shows an impressive expansion of female participation in international migration. Female migration, which is shown to be strongly associated with education, wealth, and social capital, appears responsive to economic incentives and constraints. Yet, using unique data on the dependency of female migration to the household demographic structure as well as the sensitivity of female migration to household-level shocks, the authors show that it is the households themselves that are the decision-making agents behind this economic calculus and there is little to suggest that increased female migration signals the emergence of female agency.

JOHN HALTIWANGER, University of Maryland - Department of Economics, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Email: Haltiwan@econ.bsos.umd.edu
STEFANO SCARPETTA, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) - Economics Department (ECO), World Bank - Social Protection Unit (HDNSP), Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Email: Stefano.Scarpetta@oecd.org
HELENA SCHWEIGER, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
Email: helena.schweiger@gmail.com

This paper analyzes job flows in a sample of 16 industrial and emerging economies over the past decade, exploiting a harmonized firm-level dataset. It shows that industry and firm size effects (and especially firm size) account for a large fraction in the overall variability in job flows. However, large residual differences remain in the job flow patterns across countries. To account for the latter, the paper explores the role of differences in employment protection legislation across countries. Using a difference-in-difference approach that minimizes possible endogeneity and omitted variable problems, our findings show that hiring and firing costs tend to curb job flows, particularly in those industries and firm size classes that require more frequent labor adjustment.

COLIN GREEN, Lancaster University - Department of Economics
Email: c.p.green@lancaster.ac.uk
PARVINDER KLER, University of Queensland - School of Economics
Email: p.kler@economics.uq.edu.au
GARETH LEEVES, University of Queensland - School of Economics
Email: G.LEEVES@ECONOMICS.UQ.EDU.AU

There has been concern that the increase in non-standard or flexible employment contracts witnessed in many OECD economies is evidence of a growth in low-pay, low-quality jobs. In practice, however, it is difficult to evaluate the 'quality' of flexible jobs. Previous research has either investigated objective measures of job quality such as wages and training or subjective measures such as job satisfaction. In this paper, we seek to jointly evaluate objective and subjective elements of flexible employment contracts. Specifically we develop and use an index of job quality that incorporates both subjective and objective elements. Analysis of this index demonstrates that flexible jobs are of a lower quality. However, this approach suggests that analysis of, for instance, job satisfaction alone overstates the negative impact of flexible contracts on workers.

ASAKO OHINATA, University of Warwick - Department of Economics
Email: A.Ohinata@warwick.ac.uk

The introduction of the 1999 Working Families Tax Credit (WFTC) in the UK encouraged low income families with children to enter the labor market. The tax credit, however, may have had the unintended side effect of increasing the childbearing of these households. While many studies have looked at the importance of WFTC on the female labor supply, only few have estimated the impact it had on fertility decisions of British families. This paper employs the 1995 to 2003 British Household Panel Survey and identifies the policy impact of WFTC by observing the change in the probability of birth as well as the timing of birth using the difference in differences estimator. The main findings of this paper suggest that single women responded to the policy introduction by reducing the probability of birth and prolonging the birth intervals across all birth parity. For women with partners, on the other hand, the estimates indicate that financial incentives did not encourage them to enter motherhood but it rather induced women to have their second birth quicker.

OLIVER RUF, University of Zurich
Email: oliruf@iew.unizh.ch

This paper analyzes labor market success of workers who are displaced in boom versus recession periods. Moreover, the empirical analysis contrasts workers from small firms and large firms. The idea is that displacement carries no information about workers' productivity in large firms but is a signal of low productivity in small firms. This signal is stronger when the plant closure occurs in a boom period than in a recession period. Results indicate that the (i) state of the business cycle is important for influence the effect of displacement on labor market success and (ii) the effect differs by the size of the firm. In large firms, displaced workers suffer from larger earning losses when displacement occurs in recession compared to boom, the opposite result is found for workers displaced from small firms.

KEITH FINLAY, Tulane University - Department of Economics
Email: kfinlay@gmail.com

Since 1997, states have begun to make criminal history records publicly available over the Internet. This paper exploits this previously unexamined variation to identify the effect of expanded employer access to criminal history data on the labor market outcomes of ex-offenders and non-offenders. Employers express a strong aversion to hiring ex-offenders, but there is likely asymmetric information about criminal records. Wider availability of criminal history records should adversely affect the labor market outcomes of ex-offenders. A model of statistical discrimination also predicts that non-offenders from groups with high rates of criminal offense should have improved labor market outcomes when criminal history records become more accessible. This paper tests these hypotheses with criminal and labor market histories from the 1997 cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. I find evidence that labor market outcomes are worse for ex-offenders once state criminal history records become available over the Internet, and somewhat weaker evidence that outcomes are better for non-offenders from highly offending groups. Results for ex-offenders demonstrate the presence of imperfect information about criminal records by employers. The non-offender results are consistent with statistical discrimination by employers. Estimates may be confounded by a short sample period and ongoing human capital investments, but the research design provides a unique setting for testing theories of statistical discrimination.