LESZEK MORAWSKI, Warsaw University - Department of Economics and Business
Email: lmorawsk@wne.uw.edu.pl
MICHAL MYCK, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Email: michal_m@ifs.org.uk

In 2007 and 2008 Polish governments introduced a series of reforms which led to a substantial reduction in the tax "wedge" (in Polish: "klin") on labour. We show that when considered together the package of introduced reforms brought much greater reductions in the tax burden compared to a widely discussed 15% "flat tax". In the analysis we show the effects of the reforms both for the employed and for the non-employed populations. The latter analysis is done in such a way as to account for the entire (simulated) distribution of wages of the non-employed and shows interesting differences between the effects of reforms on employed and non-employed individuals. We argue that to fully appreciate the effect of reductions in labour taxation it is important to bear in mind that one of the reasons for introducing them is to make employment more likely for those who currently do not work. Given the extent of the reductions in the "klin" it is somewhat surprising that so far so little attention has been given to the recent Polish reforms.

LUIS L. MARTINS, New York University
Email: lmartins@stern.nyu.edu
AJIT KAMBIL, affiliation not provided to SSRN

This paper reports the results of an empirical study that examines how a manager'sexperience with a specific strategic information technology in their industryinfluences cognitive managerial tasks associated with new informationtechnologies. Specifically, we sought to assess the effects of both positive andnegative managerial experiences on: the framing of new information technologiesas threats or opportunities for the firm, the perceived uncertainty associated withresponding to new information technologies, and the seeking of information aboutnew information technologies. We undertook this study in the tax preparationindustry and examined how managerial perceptions of new informationtechnologies were shaped by managers' previous experiences with electronic filingtechnology for tax returns.

MARTIN BOILEAU, University of Colorado at Boulder - Department of Economics
Email: martin.boileau@colorado.edu
MICHEL NORMANDIN, HEC Montreal - Institute of Applied Economics
Email: michel.normandin@hec.ca

We study the effects of tax shocks on the budget and external deficits for 16 industrialized countries over the post-1975 period. Our structural approach is based on a tractable small open-economy model where a tax cut innovation generates a budget deficit. In turn, the budget deficit affects the external deficit by two distinct channels. The demographic channel works through the overlapping-generation structure of the model. The forecasting channel works through the dynamic structure of the model. Our empirical analysis documents that tax shocks generate significant positive comovements between the budget and external deficits. We also find that both the demographic and forecasting channels are important to explain the comovements.

JOS VAN OMMEREN, Free University of Amsterdam - Department of Spatial Economics
Email: jommeren@feweb.vu.nl

According to economic theory, there are no strong reasons to tax (or to subsidise) residential moves, although low levels of taxation may be potentially justified to deal with the presence of externalities and economic stability. This is in contrast to practise in most countries where governments have created strong barriers to moving (transaction taxes, rent control) which induces substantial transaction costs. Likely, the welfare losses due to these government-induced transaction costs are substantial.

AHMED A. ZAKI, affiliation not provided to SSRN
Email: azaki200011451@yahoo.com

Egypt is one of the most important tourist destinations worldwide; it receives millions of visitors every year. Consequently, Tourism forecasting and planning are vital in maintaining and managing this flow of visitors. Hence, it is imperative for policymakers in both the public and private tourism sectors in Egypt to examine tourist arrival patterns, and to generate forecasts for such industry. The objective of this paper is to forecast the performance of the tourism industry in Egypt until the year 2017. The main factors affecting such performance are the deficiency in exploiting human capital efficiently, ineffective marketing campaigns, and lack of strategies to enhance Egypt's image. This study examines the aggregate tourism demand function for Egypt using the time series data for the period 1982-2006. An ARMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) model is applied as an efficient tool to forecast the future values of dependent variables (international tourism arrivals and revenues); and its relationship with the above-mentioned independent ones; until the year 2017.