A Framework of Predictive Analysis of Tourist Inflow in the Beaches of West Bengal: A Study of Digha-Mandarmoni Beach

In Proceedings of the First International Conference on Computational Intelligence, Communication, and Business Analytics (CICBA 2017), March 24-25, 2017, Kolkata, INDIA. Publisher: Springer-Verlag, CCIS Series., Forthcoming

15 Pages Posted: 20 Mar 2017

See all articles by Sanjana Mondal

Sanjana Mondal

Calcutta Business School

Jaydip Sen

Praxis Business School

Date Written: March 11, 2017

Abstract

Tourism is increasingly becoming an extremely important sector with its rapidly increasing contribution to GDP of any state or country as a whole. Analyzing and predicting tourist inflow not only enables us to make an accurate estimate of the number of tourists that is likely to visit a destination, but it also provides us with an opportunity to gear up the capacities of that place in terms of logistics, hospitality etc. in order to cater to the tourists leading to an overall socioeconomic development of the place. This paper presents a study on the tourism demand for two very popular beaches of the state of West Bengal in India. In this work, time series values of the domestic tourist inflow to Digha and Mandarmoni beaches in West Bengal are used for the period of January 2008-December 2014. The time series is decomposed into its components – trend, seasonal, and random – in order to make further analysis. Based on the structural analysis, five different approaches of forecasting are formulated and the forecast accuracy is computed for each of the methods. Using R statistical tool, extensive results have been presented that provide very meaningful insights to the tourists’ inflow time series. The results also demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed forecasting framework.

Keywords: Forecasting, Tourist inflow, Holt-Winters forecasting model, ARIMA, Time series decomposition, Trend, Seasonality, R programming language

JEL Classification: C22; C32; C53; E17; E37; L83

Suggested Citation

Mondal, Sanjana and Sen, Jaydip, A Framework of Predictive Analysis of Tourist Inflow in the Beaches of West Bengal: A Study of Digha-Mandarmoni Beach (March 11, 2017). In Proceedings of the First International Conference on Computational Intelligence, Communication, and Business Analytics (CICBA 2017), March 24-25, 2017, Kolkata, INDIA. Publisher: Springer-Verlag, CCIS Series., Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2934372

Sanjana Mondal

Calcutta Business School ( email )

Bishnupur
South 24 Parganas
Kolkata, West Bengal 743503
India

Jaydip Sen (Contact Author)

Praxis Business School ( email )

Bakrahat Road, P.O Rasapunja,
Off Thakurpukur Raod
Kolkata, West Bengal 700104
India
+919836189765 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://praxisbusinessschool.academia.edu/JaydipSen

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