Foresight in CEE Countries

Abstract

The main challenge for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has been the transition to market economies, and for several of them, it has been coupled with accession to the EU and cohesion with the more advanced EU Member States. Given the planned economy heritage, not only has the ‘usual’ macroeconomic stabilisation been required, but a much more challenging and more complex modernisation programme, involving fundamental structural and institutional changes, has also been requisite. Systemic changes have been necessary in order to transform CEE countries into viable economies, capable of economically, socially and environmentally sustainable development. Some countries have progressed further than others, so that across the region, the demanding and socially rather costly process of political and economic transition has been achieved to a different degree.

An inherent contradiction of the transition and catching-up process has lay in the tension between short-term and long-term issues, which have had to be tackled simultaneously, while intellectual and financial resources have been insufficient to deal with all these issues at the same time. Besides establishing the fundamental institutions of market economies and political democracies – which undoubtedly have had long-term impacts – up until the mid- or late 1990s, most efforts had been directed towards solving short-term problems. Thus, it had neither been possible to pay sufficient attention to emerging global trends, nor to devise appropriate strategies to improve long-term competitiveness in these new settings. However, in recent years, several CEE countries have started to consider the longer-term more systematically. Among these still rather limited efforts are a number of national technology foresight exercises, launched with a view to setting S&T priorities that take account of longer-term developments, and, in some instances, to improving dialogue between scientists, business, and policy makers. These national level exercises are the subject of this chapter.

The chapter offers a brief description of developments in science, technology and innovation in the transition era, highlighting the many challenges faced and the main problems that remain. It is suggested that the CEE countries suffer from a serious innovation ‘deficit’ to varying degrees and that this acts as a drag on future sustainable development. The prospects of technology foresight addressing some of these problems and challenges are then briefly examined, followed by descriptions of national technology foresight efforts in six countries: Hungary, Czech Republic, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Poland. The paper finishes with a discussion of these experiences, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses, and speculating on how technology foresight might develop in the region over the next few years.

Keywords: foresight, catching up, innovation systems, innovation policies, Central and Easter Europe

JEL Classification: O38, P21, O31