Opening the Black Box of Conflict Management: Understanding Management Decisions and Policy Substitution

Abstract

While the conflict management literature has certainly made many strides in recent years, we have very little information about what goes on between the start and end of such efforts. Certain styles of management may be more or less appropriate in the given circumstances of a conflict, and managers may substitute management techniques once an effort is underway. This paper examines third party choice of management method and method substitution. I argue third party decisions result from four factors: third party barriers to entry, conflict costs, the prospects for peace, and management facility. I test my theoretical argument on a newly combined dataset that includes verbal, diplomatic, administrative, economic, and military conflict management efforts. The results show that the changing nature of the conflict has less influence on third party decisions than one might expect, and that the relationship between the third party and disputants is integral to understanding the management decision process.