Cross-cutting Cleavages and Ethnic Conflict: Evidence from Survey Experiments in Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

In recent years there has been a revival in political science in thinking about political cleavages and how cross-cutting cleavages can contribute to inter-ethnic cooperation. In this paper we argue that cross-cutting cleavages alone are not enough to generate cooperation and that much depends on the details of the cleavage structure itself. We focus on two crucial aspects: the degree to which cross-cutting cleavages create symmetrical or mutual relationships and the level at which cleavages cross-cut. These cleavage characteristics will influence how populations respond to political elites' offers of alliances along cleavage dimensions and will therefore affect the ways in which underlying societal cleavages are translated into political outcomes. We make this argument with reference to a combination of survey experiments and observational data from a new two-round public opinion survey administered to 2700 citizens of Kyrgyzstan between September 2010 and January 2011, just months after a major outbreak of inter-ethnic violence. We argue that Kyrgyzstan is an important case for students of political cleavages because it illustrates the highly dynamic relationship between cleavage structures and politics.

Keywords: Kyrgyzstan, cross-cutting cleavages, ethnic conflict, Central Asia, survey experiments