The TAPI Pipeline: A Recipe for Peace or Instability?

Abstract

Amidst talks of rising instability and violence in Afghanistan, what seems to have eluded the eye is the progress on the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI) gas pipeline project. The projected gain from the pipeline is seen as an opportunity to create a win-win deal among local and regional stakeholders in Afghanistan by binding the ‘warring’ factions in an integrative economic framework. By building on Afghanistan’s role as an ‘energy-bridge’ between an energy abundant central Asia and energy deficient South Asia, there exists possibilities of integrating the conflict-ridden country mostly driven by regional power competition into a mutually dependent cooperative framework. The TAPI pipeline is projected to boost economic interdependence among competing regional powers, thus making the costs of conflict too high and benefits of cooperation lucrative. However, there are potential roadblocks, which need to be addressed before the project can take its final shape.

Keywords: Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, TAPI, energy, pipeline, South Asia, Central Asia