Studying Diffusion with Stochastic Actor-Oriented Co-Evolution Models: Co-Evolution of Interstate Diplomatic Networks and Freedom House Ratings, 1995–2005

Abstract

I advocate a social network perspective for the study of global diffusion processes. Stochastic actor-oriented co-evolution models allow to analyze diffusion within a network controlling for changing network connections. Following this approach, diffusion can be understood as an influence mechanism: the value of ego’s monadic attribute is influenced by the network structure and the values of ego’s alters’ monadic attributes. If an independent influence mechanism is supported while the effect of potential selection mechanisms are controlled for (network connections depend on the values of an actor attribute), a strong claim for a diffusion process has been made. The application of this approach is exemplified with a brief study of diffusion of liberal democracy measured by Freedom House through diplomatic ties.

Keywords: social network analysis, simulation, network dynamics, stochastic actor-oriented models, siena, democratization, regime homophily, diplomatic ties, diffusion, co-evolution