Does Local Ethnic Segregation Lead to Violence?: Evidence from Kenya

Abstract

When ethnic conflict is likely people seek safety in homogenous neighborhoods, but does this ethnic segregation decrease the likelihood of communal violence? This paper argues that local segregation causes violence by eroding interethnic trust. Although segregation reduces the likelihood of violent disputes between individuals, the possibility of positive interethnic contact is also lower in segregated areas. Where levels of interethnic trust are low, it is easier for political leaders and other extremists to build support for communal violence. I demonstrate that segregation increases the incidence of violence using a new dataset measuring ethnic composition and violence across approximately 700 small localities in Kenya's Rift Valley Province during Kenya's 2007/08 post-election crisis. Because segregation is likely endogenous to violence, I draw on Kenya's history of land settlement to instrument for segregation. I also demonstrate that it is unlikely that local segregation increases violence by increasing groups' organizational capacity for violence.

Keywords: Ethnic Conflict, Ethnic Demography, Segregation, Kenya

JEL Classification: D74