Occupation, Race, Unemployment and Crime in a Dynamic System

Abstract

Inthis paper, the relationship between unemployment and property crime is investigated in the context of dynamic system by using quarterly time series data for the United States during the period of 1973 (I) - 1981(IV). The results of Granger's causality tests indicate that unemployment by occupation (white and blue collars) is significantly associated with robbery, which is the most serious property crime. Unemployment by race (white, black, and Hispanic) also supports the above finding. In general, the linkage between unemployment rate and property crime seems to become stronger as the degree of seriousness of crime increases.The findings of the dynamic system show that blue collar, Hispanic, and black unemployment rates have persistently positive effects on robbery. Therefore, these above findings suggest that any attempt to reduce property crime through alleviation of unemployment would most efficiently be directed towards specific categories of the labor force.