IS Imbalances and Current Account Surpluses in Japan: In Memory of Professor Ronald I. McKinnon

Abstract

In this paper, I find (1) that Japan showed massive and persistent current account surpluses from at least 1981 and until at least 2011, (2) that Professor Ronald McKinnon was correct, at least in the case of Japan, and that these large and persistent current account surpluses were due primarily to Japan’s large and persistent IS imbalances (the excess of saving over investment), (3) that the specific causes of the IS imbalances have changed dramatically over time, and (4) that future trends in Japan’s IS imbalances (current account surpluses) are difficult to project but that they will probably not change dramatically in either direction in the foreseeable future.

Keywords: IS imbalances, IS balances, saving-investment balances, global imbalances, current account surpluses, current account balances, trade balances, saving, household saving, corporate saving, government saving, investment, population aging, Ronald McKinnon, Japan

JEL Classification: D14, D91, E21, F21, F32, H62