The Application of Altman's Z-Score Model in Predicting Bankruptcy: Evidence from the Trading Sector in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Prediction of bankruptcy is crucial as the early warning may change entire complications and may avoid the high cost that is associated with distress. The main purpose of this study is to examine the likelihood of bankruptcy of the firms belonging to the Trading Sector in Sri Lanka. The research used data from the financial reports of seven trading companies for a period of the last five years from 2010 to 2014. Altman’s original (1968) bankruptcy model has been applied in order to classify the companies in various levels of financial position namely safe, grey and distress. Findings reveal that 71% of the companies belonging to the Trading Sector were in financial distress and the rest of whole 29% were in the grey zone. The fact that none of the companies lie under the safe zone highlights that as a whole the sector is in a menace.

Keywords: bankruptcy, distress, financial position and trading sector