Infant Mortality and the Repeal of Federal Prohibition

Abstract

Exploiting new data on county-level variation in alcohol prohibition from 1933 to 1939, we investigate whether the repeal of federal prohibition increased infant mortality, both in counties that repealed and in their neighboring counties. Using a binomial fixed-effects model, we find that repeal is associated with a 4.0% increase in infant mortality rates in counties that chose wet status via local option elections or state-wide legislation and with a 4.7% increase in neighboring dry counties, suggesting a role for cross-border policy externalities. Cumulatively, these estimates imply 26,960 infant deaths that could potentially be attributed to the repeal of federal prohibition.