The Impacts of Climate Change on the Poor in Disadvantaged Regions

Abstract

Populations in developing countries that are located in less-favored agricultural areas (LFAA) – i.e., agricultural lands constrained by difficult terrain, poor soil quality, limited rainfall, etc. or with limited access to markets – and rural low-elevation coastal zones (LECZ) – i.e., coasts that have less than 10 meters (m) elevation – are not only at risk from the most severe and long-lasting climate change impacts; they are also susceptible to poverty-environment traps (over-reliance on marginal agricultural land and resource commons, which leads to stagnant, low incomes) that further increase their vulnerability to these impacts. We estimate that approximately 586 million people with high infant mortality live in LFAA and 85 million with high infant mortality live in rural LECZ, although both of these populations declined between 2000 and 2010. Nearly all of these people are in low-income or lower middle-income countries, with twenty countries accounting for most of the LFAA or rural LECZ populations with high infant mortality. We also examine the economic and environmental impacts of climate change on the rural poor in LFAA and LECZ and discuss policy strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change on poverty among rural households in LFAA and LECZ.

Keywords: climate change, developing countries, less-favored agricultural area, low-elevation coastal zone, poverty-environment trap, rural poverty

JEL Classification: Q54, Q56, O13