What Does (and Does Not) Affect Crime in India?

Abstract

This paper uses data from 2010–2016 across 32 states and union territories to investigate the determinants of crime in India. Results indicate the significance of demographic factor – population density and socioeconomic factors – poverty, income inequality and literacy rate – in accounting for crime in India. Among the macroeconomic factors, only GSDP per capita was found relevant. The study also reveals the importance of deterrence variables – chargesheeting rate, conviction rate, pendency in police as well as court cases – in explaining crime rates. Unlike the existing studies which use fixed effects or random effects, this paper utilizes a panel corrected standard errors model due to the presence of heteroskedasticity and contemporaneous correlation. While some implications are in line with those found in previous studies of crime in developed and developing countries, the effects of literacy rates and deterrence variables on crime are unique to the current analysis.

Keywords: crime; socioeconomic factors; deterrence; macroeconomic factors; demographic factors; India

JEL Classification: K42, J11