Impact of Asymmetric Exchange Rate Changes on U.S. Agricultural Trade: Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach

Abstract

A foreign exchange rate is one factor that drives U.S. agricultural trade. Considering this fact, the impact of asymmetric exchange rate changes on U.S. agricultural trade with major trading partners are analyzed. We employ a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to analyze the dynamic exchange rate changes on U.S. agricultural exports and imports. In order to test the asymmetric exchange rate effects on trade, we decompose the exchange rate into its positive and negative changes. Then, we calculate the partial sum for the positive and negative exchange rate. The results provide evidence that at least in the short run the effects of exchange rate changes on the U.S. agricultural exports are asymmetric for some countries while the impact of foreign exchange rate changes on the U.S. agricultural imports is symmetric. Furthermore, an increase or decrease in income among the major trading nations leads to rise or fall in the U.S. agricultural exports. Our study provides important evidence for the asymmetric exchange rate changes on the bilateral U.S. agricultural trade.

Keywords: Asymmetric Exchange Rate Changes, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, U.S. Agricultural Trade

JEL Classification: F13, F14, Q17