The Rural Mortality Decline in the United States, 1900-1930

Abstract

This paper considers the rural mortality transition over 1900 to 1930. While previous work has extensively documented urban mortality transition over this period (Armstrong et al., 1999; Haines, 2001; Cutler and Miller, 2005), declines in U.S. rural mortality have been understudied. This article fills this gap in the literature by first establishing the size of the mortality decline in rural areas, and second, examining the determinants of the decline. Contributing factors considered include the role of data aggregation, urban mortality spillovers, child health improvements, as well as the hypotheses proposed in Higgs (1973). The findings suggest that half of the aggregate rural mortality decline disappears in the balanced subsample of counties. The remainder of the mortality transition is explained the combination of declining child mortality and the changing age-composition of counties.

Keywords: Mortality rates, rural development, demographic transition, population health

JEL Classification: I15, J11, N32, O18