An Empirical Test on Harrod’s Open Economy Dynamics

Abstract

This paper has the objective to empirically test Harrod’s explanations of economic dynamics addressing both growth and business cycles. In particular we test Harrod’s speculation that opening the economy to foreign trade could lead to a reduction of cyclical instability. The main variables determining the dynamic behaviour are wealth, savings, competitiveness and, therefore, balance of trade. The behaviour of the model under scrutiny is highly non-linear and the conclusion is that stable cycles are possible only under particular conditions. In fact, this empirical test shows a stable long-run pattern for those specific parameters.

Keywords: Harrod’s dynamics, determinism, numerical chaos, economic growth, business cycles

JEL Classification: C61, E32, E37