Voting for War. Ideology, Elections and Perceptions Under Conflict

Abstract

Does political ideology shape public opinion in conflict countries? This paper tests the link between political ideology and popular perceptions of local conflicts. It finds that homicide reporting in conflict countries is highly political and the potential for manipulation is considerable. The study examines this question empirically using a regression discontinuity design approach to close-run elections in the context of the Colombian conflict. It finds that the number of homicides perpetrated by rebel troops increased substantially following close-run elections in municipalities where mayors adopted the incumbent ideology, whereas no impact is observed on the number of homicides perpetrated by any other group. Empirical evidence suggests that the violence reflects either retaliation by the rebels or the alteration of records by official bodies for political purposes. This study recommends that society, the international community and governments set up post-conflict commissions tasked with telling the truth about the conflict in order to counter hatred and polarization, and thereby consolidate peace.

Keywords: conflict, post conflict, ideology, elections, perception

JEL Classification: D72, D74, P26