Information Cascades and the 2016 Republican Nomination: Results of a Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test Applied to Popular Vote Totals

Abstract

Since the 1990s researchers have identified a social process variously known as “herding,” “information cascades,” and “bandwagoning.” More recent research suggests that such effects may be identifiable because outputs are Pareto distributed. The popular vote in the 2016 Republican primaries may be Pareto distributed, as are the popular votes in some other elections, including the 1972 and 1976 Democratic primaries — suggesting that such elections have been influenced by that social process.

Keywords: Donald Trump, 2016 Republican primary, information cascade, Jimmy Carter, George McGovern, Arthur De Vany, Pareto distribution, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test