Risk Analysis of Forest Fires in China Based on Information Diffusion Theory

Abstract

[Objective] Forest fire is an important factor affecting the stability and balance of the forest ecosystem. It is of great significance to study the risk of forest fire to improve the management ability and countermeasures of forest resources risk as well as forest resources protection. [Method]The study collected relevant data on forest fires in China from 1990 to 2016, and analyzed the forest fire distribution and forest fire risks using the method of information diffusion theory.[Result] From 1990 to 2016, the number of forest fires and the area of forest damage in China is generally decreasing. General and major forest fires occur in China every 3.08 years or so. More than 10 years has a major forest fire; an extremely large forest fire broke out about 7 years. [Conclusion] From 1990 to 2016, the number of forest fires and the area affected in China is on the whole on the decline, and the probability of forest fire occurrence is also on the decline. However, some years from 1990 to 2016 are forest fires happen frequently, such as 1992 and 2002 to 2010. What are the causes of these fires happen and what are they related to? Further research is needed. The results also show that different types of forest fires should be treated in different prevention and control measures in order to maximize the benefits of forest fire risk control. Meanwhile, in the protection and management of forest resources, the prevention and control of major and extremely large forest fire should be strengthened to minimize the loss of it. This conclusion is of great significance to the management of forest resources, the control of forest fires and the protection of forest resources. The study also discusses the relevant issues and provides some references for the risk management of forest fires in China.

Keywords: forest fires; probability distribution; information diffusion theory; forest protection; resource management

JEL Classification: Q54