Decoupling or Delusion? Investigating Carbon Intensity in the Commercial Building Sector with Economic Development in the Service Industry of China

Abstract

With the surging urbanization process and rapid economic growth in the service industry, carbon emissions released by the commercial building sector have become critical for China’s national action towards meeting the “Post Paris” mitigation target. This paper is the first to confirm whether carbon intensity in the commercial building sector decouples from the economic development in service industry via the decomposition and decoupling methods at both the scales of the nation and the top five urban agglomerations [Jing-Jin-Ji (JJJ), Yangtze-River-Delta (YRD), Pearl-River-Delta (PRD), Yangtze-River-Middle-Reach (YRMR), and Cheng-Yu (CY) urban agglomerations] in China during the 2000–2015 period. The key findings indicate the following. The nationwide decoupling status was weak from 2001–2005 and then strong from 2006–2015. At the scale of urban agglomeration, only four states were observed in the decoupling status, and the order of the decoupling statuses across the different urban agglomerations is as follows: JJJ > CY > YRD > PRD > YRMR (2001–2005), YRD > JJJ > PRD > CY > YRMR (2006–2010), and YRD > YRMR > JJJ > CY > PRD (2011–2015). The carbon Kuznets curves of the commercial building sector successfully reveal the causes of the different decoupling paths across different urban agglomerations. The growing decoupling effects can be attributed to the rapid development of energy conservation projects in the commercial building sector over the past decade. Overall, it is expected that our contribution covers the research gap of decoupling carbon intensity in the commercial building sector from economic growth in the service industry, and our efforts constitute a significant contribution to the analysis of the carbon emission peak in the Chinese commercial building sector.

Keywords: Commercial building sector; Service industry; Urban agglomeration; Decomposition analysis; Decoupling analysis; Carbon Kuznets curve