Up in the Air? Examining the Opposing Effects of Air Strikes on Civilian Killing

Abstract

As the United States engages in air strikes in Syria and in Somalia against hostile groups, the media often calls attention to the civilian casualties that have resulted from these military interventions. In this paper, we explore how air strikes affect civilian killings – as collateral or as strategic political killings by domestic actors. Believing that this effect is conditioned by the presence of non-governmental civil society actors on the ground, we explore how air strikes affect civilian killings by all actors involved in conflicts. Our results suggest that air strikes have two opposing effects: they can decrease intentional killings by government actors, but may cause deaths through collateral themselves. Yet, when air strikes occur in countries where human rights organizations are active, these civilian deaths may be mitigated.