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On the Directional Accuracy of United States Housing Starts Forecasts: Evidence from Survey Data

Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, April 2019, Volume 58, Issue 3, pp 457–488

Posted: 27 Jun 2019

See all articles by Tim Meyer

Tim Meyer

Helmut Schmidt University
University of the Federal Armed Forces
Department of Economics

Date Written: April 25, 2019

Abstract

I use data from both the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Livingston Survey to study the directional accuracy of United States housing starts forecasts. Using elements of relative operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, I find that forecasts contain information with respect to subsequent changes in housing starts. Estimates for both surveys are significant at all forecast horizons and robust across time and across forecasters. Implications for the usage of housing starts forecasts from survey data are discussed.

Keywords: Housing starts; Forecasts; Survey data; Directional accuracy; ROC techniques

Suggested Citation

Meyer, Tim, On the Directional Accuracy of United States Housing Starts Forecasts: Evidence from Survey Data (April 25, 2019). Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, April 2019, Volume 58, Issue 3, pp 457–488, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3410008

Tim Meyer (Contact Author)

Helmut Schmidt University
University of the Federal Armed Forces
Department of Economics ( email )

P.O.B. 700822
Hamburg, 22008
Germany

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