COVID-19: Assessing Some Potential Global Economic, Business and Legal Impacts

Abstract

The new and fast evolving COVID-19 global pandemic has already caused, according to the IMF, 'the worst downturn since the great depression'. This paper considers what the history and scientific analysis of previous large scale economic and disease shocks and current economic modelling can tell us about the likely scale and location of the challenge to global business, which are likely to play out in due course through legal restructuring, bankruptcy and litigation channels.

Previous economic shocks briefly considered include: the (2007-8) financial crisis and its aftermath, WW1 (1914-18) and WW2 (1939-45), Wall Street Crash (1929) and Great Depression (1930-36), the collapse of the FSU and its aftermath (1990-97) and the 9-11 attacks (2001).

Previous epidemics and pandemics briefly considered include: Ebola, SARS, MERS, HIV/AIDS, Malaria, Asian flu (1957), Spanish flu (1918-19) and the Black Death (14th century).

Initial epidemiological, SIR, and global economic modelling results and uncertainties are also considered, and some of the most vulnerable business sectors identified.

Keywords: Covid, SIR models, pandemic, IMF, ILO, World Bank