Predicting Suicide Attacks: Integrating Spatial, Temporal and Social Features of Terrorist Attacks Targets

Abstract

This PDF document was made available from rand.org as a public service of the RAND Corporation.

Set out to develop ways to predict what determines the targets of suicide attacks, using Israel as a sample, we created a database that coded for sociocultural, political, economic, and demographic factors, then conducted both quantitative and qualitative analyses with an eye to determining what puts a given area at greater risk. The quantitative analysis established that these factors are related to the odds of attack within specific neighborhoods and that the relationships held even when controlling for geospatial factors, so they seem to confer risk for reasons beyond their association with geospatial features of neighborhoods.

Keywords: Terrorism, Suicide Attacks, Predictions, Spatial, Temporal, Social, Targets

JEL Classification: J13 J00, J01, J08, J18, H00, H8