Sea Level Rise: A Preliminary Evaluation of Sindh Coast

Abstract

Coastal areas are zones of economic significance, where socio-economic activities are highly concentrated. Sea level rise is a statistical distribution of ocean level variation across the globe. A significant sea level rise of 1 mm along coastal Sindh observed over hundreds of years has resulted in sea water intrusion inland. Intruding sea water has a strong impact on the coastal communities. Recurrence of Cyclones both in increased frequency and intensity in the Arabian Sea over the past 50 years due to climate change has economic repercussions in urban communities like Karachi, Badin and Thatta. Economic importance of Sindh coastal region is evident and the cost of negligence with respect to this phenomenon will be huge. Results of climate changes are already costing around $14bn/year which is 5% of Pakistan’s GDP. Continued losses due to sea level rise will have a further negative impact on the fragile coastal economy. Karachi and the Indus Deltaic coastal areas are vulnerable to the threat of sea level rise. Thus, this paper aims to evaluate the trade-off between business as usual scenario, mitigation and adaptation options. Once damage to coastal recourses and structure has been done, then this will lead to capital loss.

Keywords: Sea level rise; Climate change; Economic; Mitigation options, Pakistan