Is Taliban Story Going to be the Iranian Story? The Islamic Emirate v. the Guardianship of the Jurist (Wilayat Faqih)

Abstract

The recent Taliban takeover in Afghanistan provides the basis to consider whether Taliban’s Islamic Emirate is on the same path as the Islamic Republic of Iran. This article presents a high-level comparative analysis of the Iranian revolution of 1979 and the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in 2021 to provide a basic framework for comparison of the two regimes. Given the differences in the theocratic vision of Iranian and Taliban clerical leadership and in their audiences, and due to the different economic and institutional contexts of the two countries, the analysis in this article uncovers that the Taliban may not follow the Iranian model. Besides, Taliban may lean towards a less institutionally sophisticated version of the authoritarian regime. The analysis also reveals that Taliban are more likely to instrumentalize an authoritarian system for their theocratic vision of an Islamic state than building of an institutionalized theocracy like the Iranian Islamic Republic.

Keywords: Taliban, Islamic Emirate, Islamic Republic, Afghanistan, Iran

JEL Classification: Z12