The Term Structure of Covered Interest Rate Parity Violations

Abstract

This working paper was written by Patrick Augustin (McGill University and Canadian Derivatives Institute), Mikhail Chernov (University of California Los Angeles, NBER and CEPR), Lukas Schmid (University of Southern California and CEPR) and Dongho Song (Johns Hopkins University).

We show theoretically that persistent deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) across multiple horizons imply simultaneous arbitrage opportunities only if uncollateralized interbank lending rates are riskless. In the absence of observable riskless discount rates, we extract them empirically from interest rate swaps using a simple no-arbitrage framework. They deliver novel quantitative benchmarks that reconcile a zero cross-currency basis with non-zero cross-currency basis swap rates. We quantify that the no-arbitrage benchmark accounts for about two thirds of the alleged CIP deviations. The residual pricing errors are associated with intermediary constraints.

Keywords: CIP violations, forwards, swaps, no-arbitrage valuation

JEL Classification: C1, E43, E44, G12, H60.