KDI 경제동향 2023. 8(KDI Monthly Economic Trends 2023. 8)

Abstract

■ The contraction in the Korean economy is gradually moderating.

○ Services production continues on a modest upward trajectory, and the sluggishness in manufacturing production is showing signs of moderation, led by semiconductors.

- The service industry continued a robust trend in employment, while the manufacturing industry witnessed a reduced decline in production and a decrease in inventory.

- In particular, semiconductors, a significant factor contributing to the slowdown, exhibited signs of easing with a substantial increase in export volumes.

- Furthermore, both the CCSI and the BSI for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors recorded modest increases.

○ However, strong downside risks persist for the global economy, including rising commodity prices and a delayed resurgence in China’s economy.

- Concerns over a surge in grain prices have been heightened due to geopolitical factors such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and poor weather conditions, in addition to recent oil price hikes.

- Amid the ongoing sluggishness of global manufacturing, China seems to be experiencing increased downside risks, primarily centered around its real estate market.

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