Publish-or-Perish as a Signalling Equilibrium

Abstract

Researchers have to signal their ability to the academic community through publications. When choosing a research project, they face a fundamental trade-off: more ambitious projects entail higher risk of failing, but their successful completion provides a stronger signal of ability. I show that researchers' signalling game admits a (stable) publish-or-perish equilibrium, in which having no publications is interpreted by the market as a signal of very low ability, and many talented researchers optimally choose incremental research projects. Current features and policies of academic institutions and scholarly journals further hinder disruptive research.

Keywords: Economics of Science, Project choice, Publish-or-perish, Signalling, Career concerns

JEL Classification: D82, I23, O31