Dynamic Evolution of Global Fossil Fuel Trade Networks Under Triple Crises: A Multilayer Network Analysis

Abstract

Global energy trade, the backbone of the world economy, is facing an era of unprecedented volatility, tested by a rapid succession of diverse geopolitical and systemic shocks. Understanding how this intricate network responds to crises is critical, yet conventional analyses often fall short by treating such disruptions as uniform events. This study addresses that gap by developing a framework that draws on earlier classifications of energy shocks (such as demand-, supply-, and speculative-driven shocks) but shifts the focus to the dynamics of trade networks. By examining recent crises through their distinct characteristics and tracing their impacts on global fossil fuel trade, the framework shows how different types of shocks disrupt networks in different ways. We examine three recent crises as distinct archetypes: the U.S.–China trade tension (a targeted and bilateral shock), the COVID-19 pandemic (a systemic and demand-side shock), and the Russia–Ukraine conflict (a structural and supply-side shock). Using high-resolution monthly trade data and a dynamic multilayer network framework, our comparative analysis reveals how energy network resilience varies significantly depending on the shock's characteristics. We find that the targeted and bilateral trade tension caused minimal lasting disruptions as the network adapted through rerouting. In contrast, the global and systemic demand shock of the pandemic led to a severe but temporary contraction. The Russia–Ukraine conflict, a structural supply-side shock, triggered a fundamental and lasting reconfiguration, including a 173% increase in U.S. LNG exports to Europe and the emergence of new transit hubs. Our analysis indicates a shift toward a "fluid phase" in global fossil fuel trade, characterized by rapid and interest-driven realignments as well as simplified crude oil trade networks that enhance efficiency but reduce redundancy. These findings offer generalizable insights into the mechanisms of energy network resilience, highlighting evolving trade-offs between efficiency, security, and geopolitical strategy in a turbulent world.

Keywords: Energy trade, multilayer network, geopolitical shocks, regionalization, fossil fuels