Cannabis Consumption in North American Legal Markets: Evidence from Seven Jurisdictions Across Regulatory Models

Abstract

This study establishes baseline cannabis consumption patterns using publicly available sales data from seven jurisdictions: six U.S. states (Florida, Oregon, Michigan, Illinois, Colorado, Washington) and Quebec's provincial monopoly system. Four jurisdictions provide Tier 1 data quality with actual dispensed weight: Florida (medical program), Oregon (recreational), Quebec (state monopoly), and Michigan (recreational, export-adjusted). Colorado and Illinois provide Tier 2 revenue data. Washington provides Tier 3 survey-based data (self-reported expenditures). Notably, consumption patterns remain consistent across fundamentally different regulatory models-private commercial markets in U.S. states versus Quebec's state monopoly retail system-suggesting that regulatory structure does not significantly affect per-user consumption levels. Price variations ranging from $3.00 to $8.00 per gram similarly show minimal impact on consumption patterns, indicating that biological and behavioral factors rather than economic variables primarily determine usage amounts. These findings have substantial implications for market sizing, cultivation capacity planning, tax revenue projections, and regulatory policy design. Accurate consumption baselines enable policymakers and industry stakeholders to develop realistic market models and avoid capital misallocation driven by inflated demand assumptions.

Keywords: Cannabis Consumption, Legal Market Share, Tax Policy, Black Market Displacement, Regulatory Economics, Cannabis Markets, Consumption Validation

JEL Classification: H71, L51, K32, I18, H20, L66, D12, C51