Visions of Sovereign AI

Abstract

This report provides a comprehensive, asset-level analysis of AI sovereignty across twelve countries and blocs: the United States, China, South Korea, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Singapore, Israel, Australia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. We introduce an autonomy–resilience framework that evaluates each state's control over AI capabilities and its ability to sustain them amid external shocks, and analyzes positioning across six supply chain segments: energy, compute, chips, data, models, and critical minerals. Our comparative assessment identifies a sovereignty spectrum ranging from fully sovereign through partially sovereign and dependent states, and finds that full-stack AI sovereignty is exceptionally rare. For most nations, the realistic strategic path runs through cultivating indispensability within an allied supply chain rather than pursuing autarky. The report concludes with strategic recommendations for U.S. policymakers, including the creation of certified full-stack integrators for AI exports, financing facilities and investment vehicles, and urgent domestic actions to close gaps in energy infrastructure, high-bandwidth memory production, and critical minerals processing.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, supply chains, international relations, sovereignty, supply chain security, national security