The Decline of Coal and Local Mortality

Abstract

The health consequences of sectoral transitions are theoretically ambiguous. Reduced industrial activity and associated pollution may improve health, while economic deterioration may worsen it. We examine these competing forces in the context of coal’s decline, linking restricted-access mortality data with records of coal-fired power plant and mine activity from 2004 to 2019. Power sector contractions reduce elderly mortality, while mining contractions increase mortality, especially among working-age adults. Declines in coal activity increase overdose deaths in both sectors. Pollution reductions alone provide an incomplete account of coal’s health consequences, as environmental and economic channels generate heterogeneous effects across sectors and populations.

Keywords: energy transition, mortality, deaths of despair, air pollution, coal

JEL Classification: J65, I10, Q52, Q53, R11